Buy LT on downdays

LT @ 895 (151008) gets 929 pancha-tattva points and buy it on down days in a few strokes for long term.

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

Buy LT to be part of your portfolio in small lots

LT @ 2720 on 28/07/08 gets 756 panch-tattva points and there is risk in buying it at current rates. This stock should however be a part of your portfolio and hence buy it in very small quantities over time on days when it declines. This way you will have built up desired level of holding in your hand and it will be unwise to sell any part of it on jumps.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

Stock Matrix – Tata Motors and L&T

By krsna Khandelwal – A veteran market analyst

Friends,

TATAMOTORS has decided to raise Rs 7200 crs for funding the JLR acquisition. It will be diluting the present equity and will be offered as rights in three types of instruments. It is step in right direction for it will safeguard the future of Tata Motors on one hand and since the JLR business will be a separate business owned by Tata Motors , the fruits will be all for TMs and without the liability beyond the initial contribution that too from the freshly raised equity. Needless to say that the TM will have tax saving on the interest out go till the conversion of debentures in to equity.

L&T has posted good results for the last quarter ended March 08. The top line growth assures that the infrastructure spending is growing whatever the impressions be.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

LT @ 2888 as on 29/05/08

LT @ 2888 as on 29/05/08 gets 818 panch-tattva points and you may buy it for only long term and on days of declines over time.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

Stock Matrix: L&T – Current progress and future prospect

By krsna Khandelwal – A veteran market analyst

Friends,

I have even earlier also dwelt on this but this time I am taking the progress made by L&T in past four years after the demerger exercise. In the year 03-04, it had posted sales of Rs 9806 crs and earned PAT of Rs 532 crs continuously improving the sales it could generate turnover of Rs 17900 crs in 06-07 and earned PAT of Rs 1403. The compounded increase in turnover works out to about 24% p.a. while the PAT growth rate works out to slightly over 36% p.a. If the we project the figures at this rate for the current year the turnover will be about Rs 22 k crs and the PAT would be about Rs 1900 crs giving an EPS of Rs. 66/- while the CMP of 4500/- should improve over the next six months to 5000/- (calculated at 24% p.a. expected return) and thus the PE at that stage would be 75. Similar projection over the next three years will see turnover rising to Rs.34 k crs and the PAT to abut Rs 4800 crs giving an EPS of RS.167/- and the then share price should be expected to be Rs.7700/- per share for a nominal gain @24% per annum discounting earning at 46 PE multiple. If this scenario unfolds, there may be some justification in the present price but the slips between the cup and lip has been ignored. Further there is no possibility of the PAT being @14.11% of sales then as against @8.63 for 07-08 (projected) which was @5.42 for 03-04, @7.35% for 04-05, @6.79% for 05-06 and @7.83 for 06-07. If the PAT as a percentage of sales does not improve, the sales will have to go up by double the rate. This again is not possible for the internal generation of fund can not ensure such sales growth and if the capital is raised from out side, the PE rate would suffer.

Our economy has already had the dream run over the last few years and may not maintain the same rate of growth as per the current indication and therefore it may safely be said that not all is right with the present price. The carrying cost itself will make the holder uninterested in holding the stock.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

Panch Tattva Points: Post Result as on 2 Nov 2007

By krsna Khandelwal – A veteran market analyst

RCOM @ 790 (021107) gets 1221 panch-tattva points and this is at a very healthy level of price , it may be bought for long term. It seems the bull cartel has not tried its hand on this because of too large a capital base and also may be they are buying it slowly to give boost later otherwise inspite of it belonging to the reliance pack it has steam left for upward movement. Buy this for long term unless some sector related negative development is noticed. The telecom sector has enough room for growth and should be backed more than the other sectors.

RANBAXY @ 439 (021107) gets 945 panch-tattva points and should be bought for long term in a few strokes and book profit on part on surges.

LT @ 4460 (021107) gets 844 panch-tattva points and may be sold off.Look back for buying after the next result and after deep correction.

RELIANCE @ 2713 (021107) gets 875 panch-tattva points and may be sold off, consider buying only after the next result.

REL @ 1852 (021107) gets 875 panch-tattva points and may be sold off, consider buying after the next result and /or after the IPO.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

Market Matrix: NOT for BULLS I

By krsna Khandelwal – A veteran market analyst

Friends,

I am neither a bull nor a bear but somebody who looks at possibilities. Way back in 2000 Infosys was selling 16500/- per share ex-bonus. At that stage the m/cap for the same was 65000 crs and the sales were around 4000 crs per year. I told my friends that how an m/cap of 65k crs can be serviced by a sale of just 4k crs where as the interest on 65k crs at only 10% would work out to 6500 crs. The answer used to be ‘आप नहीं समझते, ग्रोथ भी तो पचास टका हो सकता है सेल्स में’. What happened that the company maintained a growth rate of above 30% on an average through out but the share price is below 16500/- in 2007 (considering one split and two bonuses in ratio of one to one since 2000). This is the magic of selling dreams. The one who sold such dreams in almost all leading IT companies (the well-known K-factor) is himself out of scene notwithstanding the money banks and other institutions lost. Those who have seen the Harshad times do know the logic given by him i.e. the replacement cost theory when ACC was sold for 10000/- a piece. ACC is selling 50% higher than at that time (after bonus and rights are considered) but the man had to suffer a very bad phase in his life and is no more alive. The sufferers included the then FM, the PM now (not for wrongdoing but for failing to contain the damage to Indian economy) and the present FM (for getting his name sullied for none of his fault). The time factor and the price/return mechanism do not spare any body. The simple mathematical equation has to work. 10000/- rupees in 1992 at compounded return of just 12% work out to 60000/- rupees today. Even after the dream run for so many years and India becoming an Asian Tiger, the ACC has just been able to give back 15000/- in terms of value. You may be wondering after all what I have to say in fact. The ones with some understanding of numbers and macro level possible limits would understand what I mean to convey.

The above scenario is being played out under the leadership of LT along with company of a few more scrips. It also has more than 1.25 lac crs of m/cap while the sales are just under 20k crs (not enough to give back nominal return of just 2% on the m/cap in terms of profits). The Planning commission has just given the target of Rs1.50 lac crs investment in infrastructure in 11th plan and if the LT gets the whole work awarded the it can make a profit of just Rs.30 K crs in five years and the m/cap will be expected to be Rs. 3 lac crs . Can you digest the magnitude of expectation from it? The Rome was not built in a day, Gentlemen, please develop your own understanding of numbers and economy, if you want to stay in market as somebody who can make out where the limit has been stretched beyond the wildest imagination. Who are at the back of it is not known yet. But they will have capacity to influence the market only so long as their identity is not known. The day their identity is known the game would be over and who knows who will become answerable and who would bear the brunt. I am happy the public is not being fooled by the rhetoric. The broader market has been immune to the invitation extended by the bull cartel to join. They (the cartel) will not have the capacity to take the entire market on the course of Nifty or Sensex. If they do so, they are sure, the Indian promoter group and the investor group will load them with every piece of paper tradable.

The genius of Indian businessmen is not limited. It can create a business of same type and size for one-fifth the cost. Why would they not accept the largesses so liberally coming their way and hand over their respective companies on decorated platter? The License Raj restriction are not there any more to curb their future effort in creating newer company where there in no unwanted burden to be carried like the employees of little competence and caliber. Where the relocation will be at the right point and where the synergies would be taken care of. I can speak endlessly but need not for there are many who will catch the hint.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

Panch Tattva: Update for Nifty Stocks as on 22 Jun 2007

By krsna Khandelwal – A veteran market analyst

Friends,

Those who followed the recommendations regarding Nifty scrips noticed that there was buying opportunity for Ranbaxy and selling opportunity for many scrips like ABB,HDFCBANK, BHARTIARTL and SUZLON.

Symbol		LTP 22 Jun		LTP 18 Jun		Recos as on 18 Jun 07
ABB		4726.45		4602.5		Sell on surges
ACC		852.25		824.85		Buy on declines
BAJAJAUTO		2177.55		2081.4		Buy on declines
BHARTIARTL		825.5		808.9		Sell on surges and buy on declines
BHEL		1438.65		1381		Buy on declines for long term
BPCL		352.1		334		Buy on declines
CIPLA		209.85		207.7		Buy on declines
DABUR		102.7		101.2		Ignore
DRREDDY		651.4		631.1		Buy in small lots
GAIL		306		297.2		Buy on declines
GLAXO		1256.4		1274.8		Ignore
GRASIM		2497.5		2376.2		Buy on declines
GUJAMBCEM		116.4		110.35		Buy on declines
HCLTECH		330.3		337		Ignore
HDFC		1880.9		1766.2		Buy on declines and sell on surges
HDFCBANK		1103		1088.45		Sell on surges
HEROHONDA		668.4		654.35		Ignore
HINDALC0		170		161.55		Buy on declines and sell on surges
HINDLEVER		192.35		187.75		Buy on declines
HINDPETRO		272.3		264.1		Buy on declines
ICICIBANK		954.55		918.75		Buy on declines
INFOSYSTCH		1950.8		1989.45		Buy on deep decline
IPCL		346.3		333.65		Ignore
ITC		154		153		Buy on declines
LT		2107.5		1926.9		Buy in small lots
M&M		731.45		693.7		Buy on declines
MARUTI		761.35		742.85		Buy on declines
MTNL		160.55		153.25		Ignore
NATIONALUM		259.9		262.85		Ignore
ONGC		909.6		889.55		Buy on declines
PNB		517.3		489.15		Buy on declines
RANBAXY		355.5		359.15		Buy on declines
RCOM		513.25		488.1		Ignore
REL		590.3		530.05		Buy on declines
RELIANCE		1705.1		1671.6		Ignore
RPL		96.3		94.95		Ignore
SAIL		134.2		133.2		Buy on declines and sell on surges
SATYAMCOMP		462.05		475.8		Buy on declines
SBIN		1455.2		1318.6		Buy in small lots
SIEMENS		1311.8		1323.35		Sell on surges
STER		584		544.3		Ignore
SUNPHARMA		1065.2		1045.6		Buy on declines
SUZLON		1378.1		1353.8		Exit on surges
TATAMOTORS		684.3		644.95		Buy on declines
TATAPOWER		639		593.25		Buy on declines
TATASTEEL		600.15		589.15		Buy on declines
TCS		1139.95		1162.6		Buy on deep decline
VSNL		480.45		451.8		Buy on declines
WIPRO		517.3		523.05		Ignore
ZEEL		297.4		288.15		Ignore

The markets are looking for correction and June derivative closing is becoming hindrance in the process.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

Panch Tattva: Update: Nifty Stocks recommendations as on 18 Jun 2007

By krsna Khandelwal – A veteran market analyst

Friends,

At this juncture, I am inclined to give you recommendations for guidance regarding Nifty Stocks.You should have a recheck from us under Panch Tattva Teknik after next quarterly result.

Symbol		LTP		Recos
RANBAXY		359.15		Buy on declines
HEROHONDA		654.35		Ignore
HINDPETRO		264.1		Buy on declines
GLAXO		1274.8		Ignore
SUZLON		1353.8		Exit on surges
HDFCBANK		1088.45		Sell on surges
TATASTEEL		589.15		Buy on declines
TCS		1162.6		Buy on deep decline
SAIL		133.2		Buy on declines and sell on surges
WIPRO		523.05		Ignore
BAJAJAUTO		2081.4		Buy on declines
SATYAMCOMP		475.8		Buy on declines
SUNPHARMA		1045.6		Buy on declines
HDFC		1766.2		Buy on declines and sell on surges
LT		1926.9		Buy in small lots
RCOM		488.1		Ignore
CIPLA		207.7		Buy on declines
INFOSYSTCH		1989.45		Buy on deep decline
M&M		693.7		Buy on declines
TATAMOTORS		644.95		Buy on declines
RPL		94.95		Ignore
BHEL		1381		Buy on declines for long term
GRASIM		2376.2		Buy on declines
RELIANCE		1671.6		Ignore
IPCL		333.65		Ignore
PNB		489.15		Buy on declines
REL		530.05		Buy on declines
BHARTIARTL		808.9		Sell on surges and buy on declines
SBIN		1318.6		Buy in small lots
HCLTECH		337		Ignore
BPCL		334		Buy on declines
DRREDDY		631.1		Buy in small lots
MTNL		153.25		Ignore
VSNL		451.8		Buy on declines
TATAPOWER		593.25		Buy on declines
STER		544.3		Ignore
ACC		824.85		Buy on declines
DABUR		101.2		Ignore
HINDLEVER		187.75		Buy on declines
HINDALC0		161.55		Buy on declines and sell on surges
MARUTI		742.85		Buy on declines
ITC		153		Buy on declines
GUJAMBCEM		110.35		Buy on declines
GAIL		297.2		Buy on declines
NATIONALUM		262.85		Ignore
ONGC		889.55		Buy on declines
ICICIBANK		918.75		Buy on declines
ZEEL		288.15		Ignore
SIEMENS		1323.35		Sell on surges
ABB		4602.5		Sell on surges

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

Panch Tattva: Post Result: TATACOFFEE,IVRCL, SAVITACHEM, BRITANNIA, THERMAX,HPCL,SHASUNCHEM,LT, CANBK, SUNFLAG at CMP on 29 May 2007

By krsna Khandelwal – A veteran market analyst

Friends,

Please note the post result Panch Tattva points in respect of the following companies that announced their results, the reference price is the closing price on 29 May 07:

TATACOFFEE @305 gets 953 points and buy it in small lots on dips and book profits on half the quantity, keep rest for longer term.

IVRCLINFRA @359 gets 782 points and do not buy it, book profits if in stock and buy back when 20% cheaper.

SAVITACHEM @268 gets 982 points buy it regularly in small lots , book profits on part and keep the rest for long term , keep checking after very result under PanchTattva Teknik.

BRITANNIA @1613 gets 783 points and you may ignore it for the time being, check after the next result.

THERMAX @467 gets 841 points and its costly to buy now, better wait till next result.

HPCL @278 gets 933 points and buy it on dips for long term, recheck after next result.

SHASUNCHEM @100 gets 1024 points and should be bought as no extraordinary risk is anticipated.

LT @1856 gets 882 points and is costly to buy now, wait till the next result time.

CANBK @260 gets 1132 and is good to buy and keep for medium term.

SUNFLAG @17 gets 1104 points and buy it right away, recheck after next result.

The markets are getting turbulent by the day and not exactly stronger. There are some sectors that show signs of slow down and some are already in to the declining fortune mode. Leaving the infrastructure sector, no other sector is in its pink of health. Do not miss to book sudden profits. The cash would be better utilised after the next quarterly result season throws up opportunities.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market