SAIL,MUKAND,ZEEL,JPASSOCIAT,MCDOWELL,CHENNPETRO,LICHSGFIN,MARICO

SAIL @ 105 (211008) gets 1149 pancha-tattva points and is good for long term investment.

MUKAND @ 34 (211008) gets 873 pancha-tattva points and should be sold off and bought on declines.

ZEEL @ 147 (211008) gets 1396 pancha-tattva points and should be bought for long term.

JPASSOCIAT @ 79 (211008) gets 1488 pancha-tattva points and should be bought for medium term.

MCDOWELL-N @ 755 (211008) gets 839 pancha-tattva points and may be accumulated on declines in a few strokes.

CHENNPETRO @ 147 (211008) gets 841 pancha-tattva points and should be sold off and bought back on declines.

LICHSGFIN @ 242 (211008) gets 1386 pancha-tattva points and should be bought for long term.

MARICO @ 55 (211008) gets 861 pancha-tattva points and should be bought in small quantities on days of declines for long term.

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

Market Matrix – Repo rate cut by 100 bps

Friends,

RBI has, in a surprise move though in line of expectation, reduced the repo rate cut by 100 bps. This will affect interest rate scene in good measure and the bank would be also moderating rates on advanced for house purchase and other purposes. This is first cut since 2003.

SEBI has not taken kindly to lending and borrowing of shares for short sale out side India. He thinks that this practice not right and needs to be curbed but after further study of the matter. Stock lending in India has not taken off as was expected. He seems inclined to stop short sales by FIIs. There has to be some thing black at the bottom for market do not ordinarily behave the way they have recently.

FM gets parliamentary approval for fertilizer subsidy and for oil bonds etc of more than Rs 1.05 lac crs.

Nalco cut aluminium prices by Rs 5000/ton.

Kotak Securities says market is at near bottom.

Manmohan Singh expects that economy will be affected but would be posting higher rate of growth of 9 pc once the matters settle.

Renuka Sugar buys 67 pc stake in Gokak Sugar for Rs 69 crs. On second thoughts the sugar scrips will be good investment.

Paswan says Sail expansion will be on track. Also there is a possibility of removal of export duty on steel.

Nifty close up at 3122 and Sensex is back at over 10000 mark. The Asian markets were better today and the European markets are also doing fine. The DOW futures are better today. All in all the sentiment is improving but slowly.

HariOm,
Krsna Khandelwal

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

SAIL

SAIL @ 125 on 21/07/08 gets 1069 panch-tattva points and you may regularly buy this stock and sell partly on jumps.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

Stock Matrix – ACC and SAIL

By krsna Khandelwal – A veteran market analyst

Friends,

ACC will add 7 M/T capacity over next three years. This will generate additional revenue of Rs 3500 crs. This way total revenue may expected to be between Rs 14 K crs to Rs 15 K crs in FY11. Even if it maintains net profit at about 10% of sales against 19% of sales at present, it will be able to post EPS of Rs 80/- per share. So, why have sleepless nights if ACC is going down. You may pick more of it. Though not a possibility yet if ACC becomes a take over target the acquirer will have to pay not less than Rs 2000/- per share.

ACC is cash rich too and would be looking for the expansion in capacity by acquisition of other companies/plants as well as expand through green field projects. Present locations are seeing expansion wherever feasible. As per the replacement theory its capacity of 22.4 M/T may well be valued at between Rs 20 K crs and Rs 25 K crs . This gives it an approx. value of Rs 1200/- per share .

Similar is the case with ‘SAIL’ and therefore I see some method in the madness in the present day trading in these two scrips.

According to Census 2001 , India has 35 cities with over a million population. It is estimated that these cities would require $29 bn to upgrade the transport infrastructure.

The auto sector has posted decent sales growth in the month of May 08. All the segment in auto sector have performed better.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

Stock Matrix – SAIL’s share may trade well beyond Rs 300 per share in less than 2 years

By krsna Khandelwal – A veteran market analyst

Friends,

The SAIL’s capacity is going to go up to 26.2 M/T from the present capacity of 14.6 M/T by 2010 at an outlay of Rs 54000 crs. By a simple calculation we arrive at a figure of around Rs 4500 crs towards cost of setting up one million capacity. Applying a lower figure for the present capacity at Rs 3000 crs per million tonne towards costs we arrive at a valuation of Rs 45000 crs invested out of self generated funds by SAIL , we may safely value the company at Rs 65000 crs which works out to Rs160 per share. The present price of SAIL’s equity share is close to this figure but considering the RONW at far higher rate than ordinarily is the case for most companies we should be comfortable to give at least 100% premium to the present enterprise value of Rs 65000 crs as earlier arrived at. By this simple and reasonable calculation it may be said that given a more congenial environment, the SAIL’s share may trade well beyond Rs 300 per share. I have not given any value to the hidden assets of the company and for its investment in subsidiary companies while working out the enterprise value.

The crude steel production for 07-08 has gone up to 34.71 M/T rising by 10% per annum since 02-03. Similarly, the finished steel production touched 55.27 M/T mark in 07-08 against 37.17 M/T in 02-03. These are very encouraging figures. India’s steel demand is going to remain stronger in the near future without doubt.

There have been 193 MOUs signed with various states covering a planned capacity of 243 M/T for an out lay of Rs 5.14 lac crores.

May I therefore say it is high time to invest in SAIL and not listen to the noise making you jittery about investing.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

SAIL @ 187 as on 16/05/2008

SAIL @ 187 as on 16/05/2008 gets 1098 panch-tattva points and may be bought without hitch, however, it will be prudent to book profits beyond 220 level on some part of holding.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

Market Matrix – Nifty and Sensex rebound on 28 Mar 2008

By krsna Khandelwal – A veteran market analyst

Friends,

The markets have rebounded and with conviction while FM was reported to have said during his Singapore visit that the growth rate would plummet in coming time and may bot be any better than 8%. The markets towards the end of session did reverse by posting handsome Nifty gain of 111 points which closed the day at 4986. Earlier, about a few moths back the FM had been optimistic about the growth rate and did not find reasons that may damage growth rates but the markets did the opposite and went in to a tail spin.

The scrip of SAIL is not responding to the bullish mood in market and ruling under 200. The govt. may do away with import duty, this has been reported in papers but the steel prices domestically have gone up further. This may in fact translate in to hefty profits for SAIL. It is in fact in the process of enhancing capacities and putting up new plants. It has substantial reserves in the balance sheet and has never ever issued bonus shares. Since substantial investments have been made out of generated funds and fixed asset have grown, the working capital needs would be met through fresh borrowing , I think the lenders would expect rather demand that the part of the reserves are converted in to capital. In light of these factors I expect SAIL management to announce bonus in the ratio of one to one or two for one. If it turn out to be one to one then the ex-bonus price may settle between range of Rs 130/- per share to 170/- per share. With two for one bonus it may be Rs 90/- or so. It has also been noticed that the premium on calls in its case have gone up to almost 8% which says that some quarters are picking this scrip with grand designs.

Would you not like to pick such a promising scrip at current prices. The cash and laggards may be converted in to SAIL for big gains. Book value and PE is quite OK, however.I may declare here that I have my own interest in this scrip.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

SAIL @ 216 as on 29 Jan 08 after Q3 results

SAIL @ 216 (29/01/08) gets 1111 panch-tattva points and is good for purchase , book profits partly on jumps.

Previous Recommendations:

@261(30/10/07) :1116-Sell off.
@153(25/07/07) :1149-Sell partly on surges.
@144(23/05/07) :1170-Retain and purchase.
@113(29/01/07) :1219-Retain and purchase.
@92 (03/01/07) :1282-Buy and hold.
@83 (15/12/06) :1230-Buy.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

SAIL Stock Timeline as on 10 Dec 2007

SAIL @ 261 (30/10/07) gets 1116 panch-tattva points and sell half holding now rest on jumps and forget for up to next result.

SAIL @ 153 (25/07/07) gets 1149 points and sell part quantity in hand on surges and buy it only after the next result.

SAIL @ 144 (23/05/07) gets 1170 points and this is OK for retention and moderate purchase, however, profits may be booked when it advances by 5-7% in price.

SAIL @ 113 (29/01/07) gets 1219 points and this is OK for retention and moderate purchase, however , profits may be booked when it crosses 126/- in price between now and three months from now.

SAIL @ 92 (03/01/07) gets 1282 points and is ready for jump after the next quarterly if the steel prices remain stable.

SAIL @ 83 (15/12/06) gets 1230 points.Buy moderately,book profit on surges on half quantity and wait for next quarterly results

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

Panch Tattva Points: Post Result as on 30 Oct 2007

By krsna Khandelwal – A veteran market analyst

CROMPGREAV @ 405 (301007) gets 820 panch-tattva points and may be sold off,consider buying after next result.

UNITECH @ 374 (301007) gets 904 panch-tattva points and may be sold off,reconsider after next result.

SAIL @ 261 (301007) gets 1116 panch-tattva points and sell half holding now rest on jumps and forget for upto next result.

IOC @ 469 (301007) gets 1040 panch-tattva points and may be bought,sell part on surges and keep rest for long term.

CEAT @ 178 (301007) gets 1115 panch-tattva points and may be bought for medium term.

HAVELLS @ 654 (301007) gets 823 panch-tattva points and may be sold off.

BEML @ 1584 (301007) gets 718 panch-tattva points and may be sold off.

EIDPARRY @ 147 (301007) gets 1029 panch-tattva points and may be bought on declines for medium term.

KALPTARU @ 1836 (301007) gets 841 panch-tattva points and may be sold off.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market